Wheat showing signs of weakness on Wednesday
The U.S. wheat market is presenting a mixed picture, as strong export demand faces slight pressure from lower winter and spring wheat outputs and below-average spring wheat conditions, according to recent reports.
On the export front, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)'s Export Sales report for the week ending July 17, 2025, revealed net wheat sales of 494,400 metric tons for the 2025/2026 marketing year. Although this figure represents a 13% decrease from the previous week, it is 8% higher than the prior four-week average. Key buyers included Mexico, Venezuela, South Africa, Japan, and Peru.
However, the production outlook is slightly less promising. The USDA projects U.S. wheat production for 2025/26 at 1.929 billion bushels, a slight increase from the June forecast but 2% lower year-over-year. Winter wheat production was lowered by 36 million bushels to 1.345 billion bushels, primarily due to lower harvested area. Meanwhile, other spring wheat production is forecast lower at 504 million bushels due to reduced area and yield. Durum wheat is also slightly down at 80 million bushels.
Crop conditions have also been a concern. As of July 6, the spring wheat crop condition was reported at 50% good or excellent, down from 53% the prior week and below the five-year average of 55%. Winter wheat conditions, on the other hand, remain steady at 48%, above the five-year average of 44%.
The current outlook for the wheat market suggests a cautiously optimistic picture. Projected ending stocks for 2025/26 are expected to decline due to higher exports offsetting increased supplies. This balance supports a positive wheat market outlook, albeit with some vulnerability if crop conditions deteriorate further.
In terms of prices, nearby wheat futures have declined slightly, closing at approximately $5.41 per bushel. Chicago SRW futures are down 7 to 8 cents, while Dec 25 CBOT Wheat is at $5.62 1/4, down 7 1/4 cents. Sep 25 KCBT Wheat is trading at $5.24 3/4, down 8 1/2 cents, and Sep 25 MGEX Wheat is trading at $5.85 3/4, down 6 cents.
It's important to note that this article's information and data are solely for informational purposes. The spring wheat tour, conducted on the first day, estimated the northern North Dakota area yield at 50 bushels per acre.
In conclusion, while U.S. wheat export demand remains strong, production faces slight pressure from lower winter and spring wheat outputs and below-average spring wheat conditions. Ending stocks are projected lower, suggesting tighter supplies relative to exports. This balance supports a cautiously positive wheat market outlook, albeit with some vulnerability if crop conditions deteriorate further.
[1] USDA, Amber Waves, July 2025, [2] USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, July 2025, [3] USDA, Crop Progress Report, July 6, 2025, [4] USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Crop Progress Report, July 6, 2025,
In light of the ongoing difficulties in winter and spring wheat production, the implementation of advanced agricultural technology could potentially address these issues and improve crop yields. In uncertain times, the application of cutting-edge technology in agriculture may provide a much-needed safety net for farmers and stabilize the wheat market.
On the flip side, if crop conditions continue to deteriorate, the adoption of technology might not prevent a potential downturn in the market. It's essential to closely monitor both domestic and global factors impacting wheat production in order to make informed decisions about technology investments.
