Unveiling Hidden Perspectives: The Role of Survivorship Bias in Appraising Vintage Timepieces
Unveiling the Story Behind Survivorship Bias in Antique Clocks
The world of antique clocks is not just a collection of timekeepers that have stood the test of time, but a reflection of a complex interplay between craftsmanship, durability, and, importantly, survivorship bias.
In our fascination with the clocks that have survived the passage of time, we often overlook the many that didn't make it. Clocks, discarded during attic clean-outs, yard sales, or simply left to rust, form a silent majority that have been lost to history. Yet, some of these clocks' movements survived, salvaged as spare parts by professionals or enthusiasts.
The survival of antique clocks does not necessarily make them rare. In fact, they serve as storytellers, representing dozens or hundreds that didn't make it. Understanding survivorship bias in horology helps to appreciate the clocks we have without assuming they are valuable or rare.
Grandfather clocks from the 1970s and '80s, for instance, were often designed with a useful lifespan of about 25 years. However, many still run today, decades beyond their expected service life, due to survivorship bias. This phenomenon is not unique to grandfather clocks; it extends to various types of antique clocks.
When we look around and see only the clocks that survived, we risk thinking that all clocks from 100 years ago were reliable, attractive, and well-built. This is not true; we're looking at a biased sample - the winners of the survival game. Survivorship bias encourages the discovery of lesser-known makers or designs that weren't widely preserved.
Antique clocks serve as storytellers, not just of time, but of survival as well. They remind us of the clocks that didn't survive, the ones that were discarded, neglected, or simply worn out. They are a testament to the resilience of those that did, the ones that were restored and cherished.
Collectors, restorers, and admirers should remember that what they see is not a complete representation of antique clocks from the past. Designed obsolescence was common in clocks, especially alarm clocks, which were often built with planned obsolescence in mind and not originally designed to be repaired. The survival of many antique clocks today is due to the efforts of collectors and restorers.
Recognizing survivorship bias helps avoid assuming that everything old is of high quality or value. The idea that vintage cars, artworks, or antique clocks were all built better doesn't hold up under scrutiny. Instead, it's essential to appreciate the clocks that have survived, not as perfect examples of their era, but as survivors, each with its unique story to tell.
[1] For more information on survivorship bias in antique and vintage clocks, refer to the book "The Signal and the Noise" by Nate Silver.
1) Horology, the science of measuring time, offers an interesting perspective when studying antique clock collections.2) Many vintage clocks, like wall clocks and antique clocks, were designed with planned obsolescence, not originally meant for repair or long survival.3) The field of medicine faces a similar issue called survivorship bias, where only the treated patients who survived are analyzed, neglecting those who didn't.4) Technology advances rapidly, making even modern devices obsolete in a short time. However, some vintage technology, such as grandfather clocks, can still function decades after their intended lifespan, due to the same survivorship bias.
