Soybean prices decrease despite the robustness of soybean oil.
Mid-2025 Soybean Market Trends: Prices Dip, Oil Rises, and Meal Softens
The current market trends for soybeans and related commodities present a mixed picture, with soybean prices falling, soybean oil prices rising, and soybean meal prices softening.
Soybean Prices
Soybean futures have experienced a notable decline in July 2025. For instance, July 2025 soybean futures dropped about 13 to 14 cents, with the national average cash price falling to approximately $9.31 per bushel. August 2025 soybean futures closed at around $9.67 3/4, down 14 cents on a day. The USDA's July WASDE report indicated some upward pressure from higher crush and stocks but also noted reduced exports, contributing to the softness in prices.
Soybean Meal
Soybean meal prices have fallen, with the USDA report lowering the soybean meal price estimate by $20 to $290 per short ton for the 2025/26 marketing year. Soymeal futures remain weak, declining $1.40 to $2.00 per ton in recent trading.
Soybean Oil
Contrasting with meal and beans, soybean oil prices have increased slightly, with the USDA raising the soybean oil price forecast by 7 cents to 53 cents per pound. In futures trading, soybean oil showed gains of 66 to 84 points.
Supply & Demand Dynamics
The USDA forecasted higher global soybean supply and production for 2025/26, especially due to increased production in Ukraine and Brazil. Global crush (processing of soybeans to meal and oil) is expected to rise by 1.1 million tons to 367.7 million, with increases in the US, Ukraine, and Turkey outpacing declines elsewhere. Exports are forecast lower globally due to reduced US shipments but offset by higher exports from Argentina and Ukraine. Ending stocks globally are raised slightly to 126.1 million tons, reflecting higher stocks in Brazil but some reduction in China and other countries.
Crop Conditions
US soybean crop conditions are steady year-over-year, with about 68% rated good to excellent as of late July 2025, indicating stable crop development with important pollination and pod set stages underway.
Key Prices (July 2025)
| Commodity | Recent Price | Trend | |-----------------|------------------|------------------| | Soybean Futures | ~$9.30 - $9.67/bu| Declining | | Soybean Meal | ~$290/short ton | Softening | | Soybean Oil | 53 cents/lb est. | Slightly increasing|
Overall, the soybean complex is facing downward price pressure on beans and meal due to increased supplies and lower exports, while soybean oil prices have strengthened slightly due to higher crush demand and margins. Market watchers also note seasonal patterns with prices typically peaking in early July and declining into October, reflecting crop development and weather uncertainties.
This mixed trend reflects a balance between robust global production and crushing activity versus some demand uncertainties and export competition. Recent market news emphasizes watching USDA export sales reports and crop weather for further price direction.
In the context of the soybean market trends for 2025, commodity investors might find opportunities in the fluctuating prices of soybean oil, as the USDA raised the soybean oil price forecast by 7 cents to 53 cents per pound. On the contrary, the prices of soybeans and meal have seen a decline, with soybean futures dropping about 13 to 14 cents and soybean meal price estimate lowered by $20 to $290 per short ton. This trend highlights the role of technology in the agriculture sector, as advancements in farming and processing techniques may influence global supply, demand, and prices for these commodities.
