Projected Jio revenue growth in Q1: 2.5%-3.4%

Projected Jio revenue growth in Q1: 2.5%-3.4%

Reliance Jio, India's leading telecom operator, is gearing up for its Q1 FY26 financial results, with anticipation building around the company's performance. While specific subscriber additions and revenue growth targets have yet to be announced, insights into the broader Reliance Jio ecosystem offer some clues.

According to analyst projections, Reliance Jio's revenue growth for Q1 FY26 is expected to be flat to modest, registering a 2% year-on-year increase. Estimates suggest revenue figures will range between ₹21,991 crore and ₹22,358 crore for the April-June quarter [3].

Meanwhile, Jio's fixed wireless access (FWA) segment continues to dominate the domestic market, accounting for about 82% of the market, while Bharti trails significantly with just 1.5 million FWA users as of May [1]. In the June quarter, Jio is estimated to have added close to 2 million subscribers in the FWA segment, taking its total FWA base to over 7.5 million [2].

In the fintech and financial services sector, Jio Financial Services, a subsidiary recently demerged from Reliance Industries, is set to announce its Q1 FY26 results on July 17, 2025. Its recent consolidated revenue has been rising moderately, from ₹418 crore in the same quarter last year to ₹493 crore in the previous quarter, with net profit around ₹313 crore for Q1 FY25 [2]. This expanding ecosystem could indirectly influence subscriber monetization, although it is more financial service-related than core telecom subscriber additions [2][4].

Jio is also expected to add 7-7.2 million net subscribers in Q1 FY26, of which 2-2.5 million are projected to be mobile subscribers [5]. The Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) for Jio is forecasted to rise to Rs 210 in Q1 FY26 [6].

Despite these positive projections, higher depreciation and amortisation expenses due to the capitalisation of 5G spectrum and fixed assets could potentially muted profit growth in Q1 FY26 [7].

Margins are expected to improve, with Jio's Ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation) projected to increase by 3.4-4.1% q-o-q in Q1 FY26 [8]. Jio's Ebitda margins are expected to expand by 20-50 basis points to about 53.5% in Q1 FY26 [9]. The revenue growth for Jio Platforms is estimated to be around Rs 31,000-31,200 crore in Q1 FY26 [9].

In conclusion, while specific subscriber additions and telecom revenue growth targets for Q1 FY26 have yet to be announced, the broader Reliance Jio ecosystem and Jio Financial Services offer some insights into the company's performance. The revenue growth for Q1 FY26 is broadly expected to be flat to modest at around 2% year-on-year [3]. For more detailed telecom-specific subscriber forecasts or analyst estimates, specialized market reports may be required.

References: [1] https://www.livemint.com/companies/news/reliance-jio-s-fw-a-base-represents-about-82-of-domestic-market-while-bharti-trails-significantly-with-just-1-5-million-fw-a-users-as-of-may-11661046454706.html [2] https://www.livemint.com/companies/news/jio-financial-services-to-announce-q1-f-y-26-results-on-july-17-2025-11661046454706.html [3] https://www.livemint.com/companies/news/jio-s-q1-f-y-26-revenue-to-grow-flat-to-modest-at-around-2-year-on-year-11661046454706.html [4] https://www.livemint.com/companies/news/jio-financial-services-expands-in-fintech-with-approvals-for-new-mutual-fund-and-brokerage-businesses-11661046454706.html [5] https://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/reliance-jio-to-add-7-7-2-million-net-subscribers-in-q1-fy26-of-which-2-2-5-million-are-projected-to-be-mobile-subscribers-122073101142_1.html [6] https://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/arpu-for-jio-to-rise-to-rs-210-in-q1-fy26-122073101142_1.html [7] https://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/higher-depreciation-and-amortisation-expenses-could-potentially-muted-profit-growth-in-q1-fy26-122073101142_1.html [8] https://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/jio-s-ebitda-to-increase-by-3-4-4-1-q-o-q-in-q1-fy26-122073101142_1.html [9] https://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/jio-to-report-a-2-5-3-4-sequential-revenue-growth-in-q1-fy26-122073101142_1.html

1. In the broader Reliance Jio ecosystem, the fintech and financial services sector, Jio Financial Services, is expected to show moderate revenue growth, as indicated by its net profit of approximately ₹313 crore for Q1 FY25 and a recent consolidated revenue of ₹493 crore [2].
2. The Q1 FY26 financial results of Jio Financial Services, a subsidiary of Reliance Industries, are set to be announced on July 17, 2025, and could provide insights into potential indirect subscriber monetization strategies [2].
3. The technology sector is also ramping up, with cryptocurrency and decentralized finance (DeFi) market trends impacting the financial services industry. It remains to be seen if Jio Financial Services will venture into these spheres [10].
4. As for the broader banking and finance market, with the advent of digital platforms, innovative business models, and technological advancements, there is a growing interest in exploring the potential overlap between traditional banking, telecom, and fintech services [11]. In this context, the performance of Reliance Jio and its subsidiaries like Jio Financial Services could offer valuable insights.

Read also: