"Production of Drones by Russians Increases at a Faster Pace"
Russian Drone Production Acceleration: Insights from Colonel Reisner on the Battlefield Situation
In recent days, Ukraine has reported a significant increase in Russian drone attacks, with over 355 Geran-2 drones and nine cruise missiles used in the past 24 hours. Colonel Markus Reisner, a military analyst, provides insights into the reasons behind this escalation and its impact on the battlefield.
ntv.de: Colonel Reisner, the number of Russian drone attacks has risen significantly. What does this mean for the current situation?
Markus Reisner explains that this increase in attacks leads to heavy damage, with the Ukrainians managing to shoot down a considerable number of drones. However, their interception rate for cruise missiles and Iskander rockets is not sufficient to prevent significant damage. Simultaneously, Ukraine is trying to counterattack targets on Russian territory using up to 150 drones at once, according to Russian reports of over a thousand drones entering their territory last week.
Are the Russians now capable of producing these large quantities of drones?
Colonel Reisner notes that the Russians are now producing Geran-2 drones at a rate of 300 units per month back in January 2024—a rate they now achieve in just three days. These drones, which the Ukrainians call "flying mopeds," have been modified to increase their speed with jet engines, although this reduces their range. Some models are used as decoys to distract Ukrainian air defense. The explosive payload of these drones has also been doubled, now carrying up to 100 kilograms.
Can production continue to increase?
Colonel Reisner expects that production capacity might increase further, potentially allowing Russia to produce up to 500 units per day. In this scenario, Ukraine can expect constant massive strategic air attacks in the future, with continuous attacks along the entire front line, from the north to the southern section. As he sees it, this marks the culmination of the spring offensive, entering its final phase earlier than expected. The situation on the operational level becomes increasingly tense, particularly in the central section of the front.
Criticism from Ukrainian officials
Videos from the front line depict small groups of soldiers desperately holding out in strongpoints under constant Russian fire. Criticism on social media and from commanders points to senseless orders, a lack of clear strategy, and insufficient reinforcements for Ukrainian troops. The main points of contention are the handling of 18-25-year-old conscripts and the lack of coordination among Ukrainian brigades, which are being supplied by various NATO states with heterogeneous equipment and systems.
Countermeasures and Asymmetry
Ukraine uses the German Gepard anti-aircraft tank to shoot down these drones, but the tank's limited range makes it less effective. Medium and high-range air defense might be the alternative, but the required ammunition is expensive and in short supply. The US has been working to provide Ukraine with new Patriot air defense missiles to address the saturation problem. However, both Ukraine and Israel are experiencing this saturation effect, where the opponent produces too many incoming weapons, overwhelming defense systems.
Drones vs. Drones: A New Battlefield?
There are developments in combat technology and tactics on both sides, with counter-drone drones being tested. Ukraine has also been using helicopters and propeller planes to detect, track, and shoot down drones, representing another attempt to combat the mass attacks. On the defensive side, there are attempts to counter small first-person-view drones, but Ukraine lacks the required number of these systems to meet the full scale of the Russian attack.
Misconceptions and Challenges
Colonel Reisner points out two misconceptions that have dominated analyses. First, Russia is not alone; they are fighting with allies, exemplified by China, which supplies spool machines essential for drone control and electronics components. Second, Europe does have the technological innovation capacity to assist Ukraine, but production does not reach the scale required to equip Ukraine with sufficient quantities of weapons. This is also evident in the 47th Brigade, which has been deployed at various hotspots and struggles with supply shortages when tanks are destroyed.
- Despite the increased number of Russian drone attacks, Ukraine continues to face challenges in preventing significant damage from cruise missiles and Iskander rockets, as their interception rate remains insufficient.
- The rapid production rate of Geran-2 drones by Russia has significantly increased, moving from 300 units per month in January 2024 to being produced in just three days. This increase in production capacity might further allow Russia to potentially produce up to 500 units per day.
- As the production of drones continues to escalate, both Ukraine and Israel are facing the saturation effect, where the opponent produces too many incoming weapons, overwhelming defense systems, necessitating the development of new countermeasures and combat tactics, such as counter-drone drones and the use of helicopters and propeller planes.
