Is the $1 objective for Cardano an overreach? Pondering on the proximity of a potential collapse.
Chillin' with the ADA Whales: Are They Ready to Break Even?
Cardano [ADA] isn't finding much love from the big boys right now. Instead, they're ditching their ADA holdings, following their usual pattern: sell low, buy high. The $0.60 mark is barely hanging on, and without solid backup, it feels more like a fissure than a bounce.
So, with whales bailing out and the fundamentals yet to step in, is the $1 goal starting to feel more like a stretch than a possibility?
Will the 10M-100M gang trigger a downturn?
Santiment revealed a steep concentration of power, with wallets holding 10 million to 100 million ADA controlling a whopping 35.62% of the total supply. These whale wallets are the undisputed rulers of Cardano's chain structure.
The 100k to 1 million ADA group follows closely behind, holding 16.23%, making them the largest mid-sized liquidity tier. Together, they control over half of all ADA, setting the stage for significant directional shifts depending on their moves.
In other words, if these 10M-100M whales offload their ADA into weakness, the Cardano structure could face a further breakdown.
Source: Santiment
Reclaiming $1 isn't just about psychological satisfaction. Instead, it's a structural reset.
Back in mid-January, whales holding between 10M and 100M ADA started hoarding heavily. Two months later, when ADA climbed back to its original cost basis, they started shedding their ADA to break even. Their share of the supply dipped from 35.51% to 34.41%.
Consequence? ADA slid all the way down to $0.60. However, another shift happened. Whales bought the "dip" again, bumping up their holdings to 35.62%.
But here's the kicker — three months down the line, the price still languishes below their average cost basis. There's a strong likelihood that some of them might start selling again to break even.
That recent 270 million ADA dump? It could be just the beginning.
Whales testing the waters as $1 remains out of reach
With leverage disappearing from ADA's perpetual markets, it's clear that futures traders are shying away from high-risk ventures. The absence of speculative fervor keeps sidelined capital locked up.
From a tech perspective, RSI is approaching historically sensitive oversold levels. These zones have triggered sharp mean reversals in the past.
But here's the caveat. The last time this setup surfaced, Bitcoin [BTC] was breaking above $110k, washing away macro FUD and igniting altcoin rotations.
Now, ADA/BTC is retesting February support, but RSI remains stuck in oversold territory, and volume fails to verify the trend. Without a boost in relative strength, ADA continues to struggle to attract conviction buyers.
Layer that with a dearth of speculative interest, lack of on-chain accumulation, and rotational flows, and the picture becomes worryingly fragile. The once-essential $1 milestone now seems more like resistance than recovery, and the signs of whale fatigue increase the probability of a capitulation dump, putting ADA's $0.60 support on thin ice.
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Enrichment Data:
- On-chain data indicates a significant withdrawal of around $1 billion worth of ADA from exchanges, which signals strong accumulation by investors, including whales preferring off-exchange holding for long-term value appreciation.
- Institutional interest is also evident, with rising open interest coming from crypto exchanges and financial institutions, contributing to the accumulation of large holdings that could underpin future price rallies.
- Analysts forecast ADA to trade within a range of roughly $0.63 to $1.10 in the short term (2025). More optimistic targets project ADA values reaching between $1.88 and $2.91, depending on strong bullish momentum.
- Cardano's clean security reputation — no hacks or network downtime since 2017 — adds appeal to risk-averse large-scale holders or institutional investors in a market plagued by exploits, fueling demand and accumulation signals observed on-chain.
- Cardano is approaching key resistance levels near $0.80 to $0.82, with the potential to flip these into support zones, further encouraging accumulation and price appreciation beyond $1.
In summary, on-chain data points to a bullish forecast for ADA driven by strong accumulation signals and institutional interest. Optimistic predictions place ADA within a range of around $0.63 to $1.10 in the short term, with potential values reaching $1.88 and above $2.91 under strong bullish momentum. Cardano's clean security reputation and key resistance levels near $0.80 to $0.82 could contribute to a flip of these levels into support zones, bolstering accumulation and prices beyond $1. Therefore, based on whale wallet holdings, on-chain concentration, institutional interest, and clean security reputation, Cardano is well-positioned for considerable price surges, backed by growing investor confidence and accumulation signals.
- Despite the current bearish trend, whales holding 10 million to 100 million ADA have shown significant influence on Cardano's price movements, as seen in the past.
- The ongoing withdrawal of ADA from exchanges, suggesting strong accumulation by investors, could potentially provide a base for a price rally, aiming to reclaim the $1 mark.
- As leverage disappears from ADA's perpetual markets and RSI approaches oversold levels, a sharp mean reversal could be initiated, depending on the moves of the 10M-100M whale wallets.
- Investors, analysts, and institutional players see potential in Cardano's clean security reputation, long-term value appreciation, and key resistance levels approaching $0.80, which could encourage accumulation and price surges beyond $1.
