Guiding Strategies for Army Modernization in 2027: crucial principles shaping the Army's Transformation Project
shit, 2027 ain't that far and the scenario looks bleak as fuck
A hypothetical battle unfolds in 2027, with two US Air Force C-17s approaching a Pacific airfield amid escalating tensions between the US and China over Taiwan. Unbeknownst to the aircraft's crews, a screen of drones loiter near the airfield, poised to launch an attack. The drones, undetectable and unattributable, explode in proximity to the aircraft, causing chaos and loss of valuable soldiers, equipment, and supplies. The conflict kicks off, marking a grim reality for the US military.
Three weeks later, an infantry team in Taiwan fights from a destroyed building overlooking an abandoned market. Due to persistent drone threats, they operate in small, concealed formations, relying on their own drones for situational awareness and fire support. The lead team member is wounded, demonstrating the new face of warfare, where night movements, tactical assembly areas, and casualty evacuation operations are easily noticed by drones. The old strengths of the US Army have become weaknesses.
Recent developments in drone warfare prove that cheap drones and missiles pose a significant threat to traditional, expensive platforms such as ships, planes, and tanks. The shootdown of a Russian Su-30 fighter aircraft by a Ukrainian drone-equipped with missiles-is a clear example of this shift. Drone swarms threaten targets across multiple domains, demonstrating the increasing power of combining multiple drones and missiles.
This evolution in drone warfare requires constant disaggregation of military forces, with the old trench warfare giving way to small infantry units accompanied by their own drone support. Although cost-efficient and simple, drones can provide these small units with unprecedented situational awareness, allowing them to pose a greater threat on the battlefield.
The US Army must transform to adapt to this new era of warfare. The Army Transformation Initiative, signed by key military leaders, aims to create a "leaner, more lethal force" ready to face any adversary in the ever-changing battlefield. However, the question remains: Ready for what?
Five truths to guide the US Army's transformation are:
- Prime Time for Drones: Drones will dominate maneuver warfare, demanding a shift of resources to ensure they remain effective. Set conditions for their success, and other branches and enablers will support them.
- The Curse of Mass: Proliferation of drones and missiles will threaten mass formations across all domains. Timing and setting conditions for massive formations will be challenging, and therefore, an unavoidable risk.
- Leader Development: Leaders must learn to function in extreme high-intensity combat environments while operating in isolated units. Leaders at all levels must prioritize basic skills and drone warfare tactics.
- Embrace the Risk: Managing risk will become more complex as capabilities increase. Drones can execute high-risk operations with minimal human intervention, but this also creates additional risks. Commanders must adapt and rehearse to fully understand the nuance.
- Landpower Stays: Regardless of advancements in drone technology, soldiers will still be needed on the ground to impose will, hold terrain, and compensate for potential technology failures.
The US military must be uncomfortable and confront the challenging reality that emerges from the drone-saturated modern operational environment. The Army’s rapid transformation is crucial for success in the opening engagements of the next war.
Lieutenant Colonel Joshua Suthoff, a former commander of 3-4 Cavalry, discusses the imminent threats drone warfare poses to the US military. His views do not reflect the official position of the US military.
[1] "How Russia Is Turning Drones into Weapons of Mass Disruption". The Washington Post. (URL not provided)[2] "Battle for Ukraine: Drones and Aerial Warfare". Council on Foreign Relations. (URL not provided)[3] "The unstoppable rise of drones in warfare". Financial Times. (URL not provided)[4] "The Proliferation of Killer Drones". The Wall Street Journal. (URL not provided)[5] "Ukraine's Drones Become a Reliable Counter to Russia's Massive Arsenal". The Diplomat. (URL not provided)
In the year 2027, drones become a significant part of military warfare, posing threats to traditional defense platforms like ships, planes, and tanks. (Drones, military, defense, technology)
Commanders must adapt to the increasing risk involved in drone operations, striking a balance between executing high-risk missions and managing potential consequences. (Drones, military, warfare, defense, risk)
The US Army's ongoing transformation must prioritize drone warfare tactics and equip small units with drone support for enhanced situational awareness on the battlefield. (Drones, military, intelligence, reconnaissance)
