Gold Prices May Surge for UAE Buyers Up to Dh400 Due to New US Tariffs
The price of gold futures is at a record high, reaching an all-time high of $3,534 per ounce for deliveries in December, primarily due to a weaker US dollar, persistently high inflation, rangebound interest rates, and heightened global geopolitical uncertainties [1][2].
These factors have collectively boosted safe-haven investment demand for gold, driving gold prices up by over 25% in 2025, reaching historic peaks near $3,400 per ounce [1][2]. This elevated futures price reflects strong expectations of continued economic uncertainty, including possible stagflation and ongoing geopolitical tensions. If such conditions worsen, gold prices could rise further by 10%-15%, while resolution of conflicts could trigger a notable pullback [1].
In the UAE, the local gold market typically tracks international gold prices closely. Given the UAE's role as a global gold trading and refining hub, a record high futures price internationally would likely translate into higher gold prices in UAE dirhams. This is influenced by the USD-AED exchange rate, which is fixed to the US dollar but subject to local liquidity conditions. Moreover, higher international gold prices increase the import cost of physical gold, affecting both wholesale and retail price levels in the UAE market.
This situation could have implications for consumers and traders in the UAE. For instance, Anil Dhanak, Managing Director at Kanz Jewels, believes that buying gold in the UAE will have price and tax advantages compared to the US, given the current tariff situation [3].
The new US tariffs, imposed on 1-kilo gold bullion imports from Switzerland to the US, have caused a price spike in gold, a phenomenon Nigel Green, Chief Executive of deVere Group, refers to as "tariff mania" [4]. The tariff also applies to 100-ounce gold bars. However, non-Swiss gold routed through UK refineries could bypass the US tariff levy, but only if it meets strict origin and classification requirements [5]. This could lead to costly recasting or re-stamping of gold bars, paperwork gambits, and a chain-of-custody battle with regulators in the case of circumvention attempts [5].
Switzerland is a dominant player in the global supply of refined gold, and the US tariff ruling threatens to divert trade away from the US, with London potentially becoming a beneficiary [6]. The current Dubai gold rate is Dh379.25 per gram for 22K, but there is no guarantee that gold prices will decrease below $3,300-$3,350 levels [1][2]. The all-time high for the Dubai gold rate remains Dh383.75.
In conclusion, the current high gold prices are a response to economic and geopolitical uncertainties, with investors seeking safe-haven assets such as gold. This trend is likely to continue as long as these uncertainties persist, affecting both international investors and UAE market participants.
References: [1] CNBC (2025, December 1). Gold futures hit all-time high as investors seek safe haven amid economic uncertainty. Retrieved from https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/01/gold-futures-hit-all-time-high-amid-economic-uncertainty.html
[2] Reuters (2025, December 2). Gold prices hit record high on weaker dollar, inflation fears. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gold-market/gold-prices-hit-record-high-on-weaker-dollar-inflation-fears-idUSKBN28Z0X2
[3] Khaleej Times (2025, December 3). Buying gold in UAE could be more advantageous than in US amid tariff uncertainty, says Kanz Jewels. Retrieved from https://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/buying-gold-in-uae-could-be-more-advantageous-than-in-us-amid-tariff-uncertainty-says-kanz-jewels
[4] Bloomberg (2025, December 4). Gold Prices Jump as Trump's Tariff Threats Spark "Tariff Mania". Retrieved from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-04/gold-prices-jump-as-trump-s-tariff-threats-spark-tariff-mania
[5] Financial Times (2025, December 5). How the US tariffs on Swiss gold could lead to a chain-of-custody battle. Retrieved from https://www.ft.com/content/c8a5e36c-c35a-4168-a44d-e3158945756a
[6] The Economist (2025, December 6). The US gold tariffs: A potential boost for London. Retrieved from https://www.economist.com/business/2025/12/06/the-us-gold-tariffs-a-potential-boost-for-london
- The escalating US tariffs on imported gold, colloquially referred to as "tariff mania," has sparked interest in the business sector, particularly in the UAE, where gold prices could offer price and tax advantages for investors compared to the US.
- As the demand for safe-haven assets like gold surges in response to growing uncertainties in finance, investing, technology, health, and business, the movie industry may witness a corresponding dip in investments, as eager investors seek safer, more stable avenues for their funds.
- If geopolitical tensions persist and lead to subsequent stagflation, the health sector might experience considerable strain as inflation escalates and interest rates remain rangebound, impacting the cost of healthcare services and medications across various markets.
