Cross-border payment developments in Europe: Follow-up analysis with Money20/20 (report 2)
In a recently published report titled "How Will Europe's Money Move in the Future? 2025's View of 2035", authored by Lucy Ingham, several key predictions and findings for Europe's cross-border payments landscape by 2035 were outlined. The report, published on LinkedIn, delves into the future of Europe's cross-border payments, focusing on digital innovation, regulatory challenges, and the evolving role of currencies.
According to the report, B2B and B2C payments are expected to account for 82.2% of the total cross-border payments in EMEA by 2032. In 2024, this figure stood at 82.5%. The report also projects the total value of non-wholesale cross-border payments in EMEA to reach $25.9tn by 2032.
One of the transformative factors that will define how Europe's money moves by 2035 is the adoption of a digital euro. The report suggests that the digital euro, as public money, could serve as a counterweight to dollar-backed stablecoins and support the euro's role in the global financial system. However, its effectiveness will depend on regulatory constraints and how it is positioned domestically and internationally.
Another significant trend is the shift towards digital and peer-to-peer (P2P) payments. The broader trend within Europe, paralleling global markets, indicates a rise in digital P2P payments and mobile commerce, driven by technological advancements and consumer demand for fast, convenient solutions. This growth trajectory supports a more interconnected and digitalized cross-border payments ecosystem by 2035.
The report also highlights the increasing use of Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) as a factor influencing cross-border retail transactions and payment flows within Europe. The European BNPL market is forecasted to grow substantially, from USD 5.9 billion in 2024 to USD 18 billion by 2035.
In terms of technology, projects such as BIS's Agorá are exploring the use of tokenisation to improve the efficiency and security of cross-border payments. These innovations aim to reduce friction and costs in international transactions and could reshape how money moves across European borders by 2035.
Regulatory misalignment, especially between the EU and the US, regarding digital currencies and cross-border payments is a concern. Misalignment may lead to adverse macrofinancial outcomes unless addressed through continued multilateral cooperation, ensuring legal certainty for euro-backed stablecoins and other digital payment instruments.
The report also provides additional analysis on the role of digital wallets and technology in Europe's cross-border payments. Despite the impact of US trade tariffs, the opportunity in Europe's cross-border payments remains significant. The region is projected to grow slightly slower than Asia-Pacific but remain the largest bloc.
82% of respondents identify real-time payments systems as a primary priority for Europe's cross-border payments development, while 73% identify digital wallets as a primary priority. 94% of those surveyed expect significant or moderate change in Europe's cross-border payments infrastructure by 2035.
The full report, including additional analysis across technology, policy, companies, and countries, is available for download via Money20/20's website. The report provides valuable insights for stakeholders in the cross-border payments industry, offering a comprehensive view of the future landscape of Europe's cross-border payments.
The report suggests that the market sizing for digital wallets could significantly grow in Europe's cross-border payments, with 82% of respondents identifying it as a primary priority by 2035. In the context of technology advancements, finance plays a crucial role in the future of European cross-border payments, with projects like BIS's Agorá aiming to improve efficiency and security through tokenization.
){kind=link}