Chances of XRP Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) approval escalate to 88% following triumph in Ripple lawsuit

Chances of XRP Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) approval escalate to 88% following triumph in Ripple lawsuit

The odds of an XRP Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) approval have significantly increased, with industry analysts estimating a 79-95% probability of approval by Q4 2025, particularly around October[1][2][3][4]. This positive outlook follows the resolution of the nearly five-year SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit, where Ripple settled by paying a $125 million fine, removing the main regulatory uncertainty over XRP[2][4].

Key factors supporting XRP ETF approval include a change in SEC leadership, legal resolution, regulatory precedents, and upcoming critical deadlines. SEC Chair Paul Atkins, appointed in April 2025, is more crypto-friendly, prioritizing clear digital asset regulations that favor XRP’s approval[1]. The settlement between Ripple and the SEC ended litigation that previously clouded XRP’s regulatory status, clearing a major barrier for ETF approval and product adoption[2][4].

The SEC's previous approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs established a framework. The launch of XRP futures on CME in May 2025 may enable the ETF to qualify for a streamlined approval process under new CBOE rules[1]. SEC deadlines for reviewing XRP ETF applications are set between mid-October and late October 2025, suggesting an approval decision window in Q4 2025[1][4][5].

Potential impact of XRP ETF approval includes price appreciation, increased institutional adoption, and market optimism. Analysts predict XRP’s price could rise substantially, with targets between $3.80 and $5.50 by the end of 2025, and some forecasts suggesting investments could quadruple post-approval[3]. The approval would open the door for broader institutional investment and product development, as futures-based XRP ETFs have already attracted $1 billion in inflows[2].

However, some caution remains as dominant ETFs based on Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to lead the market, and operational challenges could limit XRP's rapid market share growth[2]. Notably, SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw has been consistently voting against all 13 crypto ETF proposals, including XRP-related products, which could potentially lower the approval chances[6].

Despite this, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas maintains a 95% probability of XRP ETF approval[7]. The end of the SEC vs Ripple lawsuit resulted in a 16% increase in Polymarket odds for XRP ETF, now at around 87%[8][9]. The surge in XRP price was due to the removal of a major regulatory obstacle, boosting confidence in a potential XRP ETF approval[2][3][4].

In summary, the XRP ETF looks poised for approval by late 2025, with Ripple’s legal victory and regulatory shifts clearing major obstacles. This approval is expected to boost XRP’s price and institutional interest, potentially making it a significant player in cryptocurrency ETFs alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum[1][2][3][4].

References: 1. CoinDesk 2. Bloomberg 3. Forbes 4. CNBC 5. SEC 6. Cointelegraph 7. Bloomberg 8. Polymarket 9. Decrypt

1.With the positive outcome of the Ripple lawsuit and the SEC's approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, there is now a 95% probability that an XRP ETF will be approved by Q4 2025, potentially making XRP a significant player in the cryptocurrency ETF market.

2.The launch of XRP futures on the CME and the change in SEC leadership have provided key factors supporting the approval of an XRP ETF, as they may enable the ETF to qualify for a streamlined approval process under new CBOE rules.

3.The approval of an XRP ETF could lead to substantial price appreciation, attracting institutional investment and opening the door for broader product development in the technology sector, similar to the impact on Bitcoin and Ethereum upon their ETF approvals.

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