Bitcoin's Price Examination: Likely Breakthrough or Reversal as Bitcoin Approaches Upper Limit Barrier?
Bitcoin swings between steep highs and lows in the current market climate, as investors ponder over macroeconomic uncertainty, ETF flows, and liquidity trends. After getting rejected at the 110K level, the price has coiled within a snug range, presenting strategic entry points for both bulls and bears.
The Daily Snapshot
On the daily chart, Bitcoin is caught between two clearly defined liquidity zones. The 95-110K bracket serves as a battleground where buyers and sellers clash, evident by the visible reactions at either end. The 100-day and 200-day moving averages continue climbing, meeting near the 95K mark and forming a robust support layer. If a bullish cross occurs, this dynamic support should be even more effective.
Up ahead, the 110K surpasses stands as a crucial hurdle as it has previously deterred BTC from closing above it. If the market can manage a daily close beyond this level, it would flip the overall structure to bullish once more. Until then, the ongoing turbulent environment may persist, even leading to a brief correction.
The 4-Hour Outlook
Switching to the 4-hour graph, we can see Bitcoin responding strongly to the bullish fair value gap at 103K, rebounding toward the bearish FVG around 106K. This area exhibits obvious resistance, but the price is now breaking above it, potentially triggering a bullish rally towards the wedge pattern's upper limit soon. The RSI hovers around 56, signaling moderate bullish momentum but not yet decisive.
For the bullish continuation to be confirmed, the buyers must maintain control of the 106K-107K range. A failure to do so could leave the door open for a revisit of the sizable 100K demand region below. Traders are advised to stay cautious and watch out for potential volatility within the tight range.
On-Chain Indications
Exchange Reserves
Since 2025, Bitcoin's exchange reserves have been on a consistent downward trajectory, reaching record lows. This long-term drop in exchange-kept BTC mirrors shifts in investor behavior, as they increasingly opt for self-custody, diminishing immediate sell pressure and signaling long-term hold decisions.
This pattern often accompanies bullish sentiment. With reserves continuing to dwindle, the price may respond even more sensitively to inflows or outflows, whether from institutional players or retail investors. This environment supports ongoing volatility, setting the stage for sharp, directional rallies and corrections.
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Sources:1. Cointelegraph. (2021). September 30, 2021. Top 5 reasons for Bitcoin's bull rally in September. Available at: https://cointelegraph.com/news/top-5-reasons-for-bitcoin-s-bull-rally-in-september2. Investopedia. (2021). July 26, 2021. Why Is Bitcoin so Volatile? Available at: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bitcoin.asp3. FXEmpire. (2021). August 25, 2021. Top Factors that Drive Bitcoin Prices. Available at: https://www.fxempire.com/forex/news/top-factors-that-drive-bitcoin-prices-23179
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