Bitcoin Price Assessment: Potential Extended Adjustment Ahead for BTC Following Recent Rejection
Alright, let's chop it up about Bitcoin's current situation and potential moves. Let's be real, Bitcoin just scratched the $111K zone, then took a breather after draining buy-side liquidity above the January-February highs. As the market takes a chill pill after its strong rally, tech and on-chain indicators hint at a possible pullback or consolidation phase.
Tech Tidbits
This technical analysis drop comes from ShayanMarkets:
Daily Dance
Bitcoin's recent rejection from the $111K supply zone ain't no sweat, but it did result in a drop that's kicking off a correction. The daily RSI is cooling off and chillin' around the 50 zone, indicating a pause in momentum. The 100 and 200-day moving averages are still pointing upwards, chilling out in the $90K-$95K range. There's a fair value gap (FVG) between $101K and $98K, which might act as a magnet for price in the short term, but can also serve as a demand zone to boost the asset upwards after penetration.
Despite the rejection from $111K, the overall structure remains bullish, with price still hovering above the ascending trendline and moving averages. As long as Bitcoin remains above the $91K demand zone, buyers are calling the shots structure-wise. If the FVG gets filled and the reaction is fierce, it could create a new higher low and set the stage for another lung at the $111K-$114K resistance zone.
4-Hour Hustle
Moving down to the 4H chart, Bitcoin took a break from its ascending channel that guided its path since early April. The bust-up was followed by a rejection at the $108K mark, suggesting that the previous support has now turned into resistance. The RSI on this timeframe is hanging out slightly below the 50, indicating bearish momentum is gaining steam. A visible range is forming between $102K and $108K, with price bouncing around this range post-selloff.
Short-term traders should keep a close eye on the mid-range and recent swing lows near $102K. A drop below this level could trigger a more intense slide toward the $100K support level. On a brighter note, recapturing the $108K mark could put the brakes on the short-term bearish vibe and potentially open the doors for a retest of the range top and another shot at $111K.
On-Chain Obsessions
Adjusted SOPR (30-day EMA)
The 30-day exponential moving average of Bitcoin's Adjusted SOPR (aSOPR) is on the rise, way above the 1.0 threshold, indicating that, on average, coins moving on-chain are doing so in profit. This generally indicates renewed investor confidence, as holders become more willing to sell at a profit rather than panic-sell at a loss. Historically, sustained aSOPR values above 1.0 during uptrends support bullish continuation, especially when price corrections are minor.
However, the current reading also suggests things are getting a bit sensitive. When the aSOPR climbs too aggressively, it often signals an upcoming local top as short-term holders sprint to dump their profits. A healthy trend would see a slight aSOPR reset above 1.0, ideally lining up with a price pullback into a support zone before the next leg up.
Now, remember, this is just the lowdown on recent happenings. For a deeper dive or up-to-the-minute updates, make sure to keep up with the regular market chatter and news. And hey, nobody's got a crystal ball, so let's see what the future holds for Bitcoin!
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Sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
- The recent rejection from Bitcoin's $111K supply zone may result in a temporary corrective drop, but the overall structure remains bullish due to Bitcoin's position above the ascending trendline and moving averages.
- In the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has broken from its ascending channel, with the RSI indicating bearish momentum is gaining steam, but short-term traders should keep an eye on the $102K support level as a drop below this could trigger a more intense slide.
- The Adjusted SOPR (30-day EMA) is currently rising, suggesting renewed investor confidence, but the aggressive climb in the aSOPR may indicate an upcoming local top, especially if the aSOPR does not reset after a price pullback.
