Artificial Superintelligence: Beggar's Tale or Serious Menace to Humankind?
AI's Rapid Evolution Fueling Discussions on Super-Intelligent Machines
The rapid strides being made in artificial intelligence (AI) have led to questions about the ultimate limits of this technology. Once confined to the realm of science fiction, conversations about super-intelligent AI are now a matter of serious discussion among researchers.
Advances in AI, particularly the release of powerful large language models (LLMs), have reignited interest in the concept of Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI), a machine that might one day match or even surpass human intelligence.
Experts' opinions on the feasibility of ASI vary widely, with some suggesting it's just around the corner. One thing is certain, though: if ASI does come to be, it will have significant implications for humanity's future.
"I expect we will enter an era of automated scientific discoveries, rapid economic growth, extended lifespans, and novel entertainment experiences," says Tim Rocktaсле, a professor of AI at University College London and a principal scientist at Google DeepMind, expressing a personal opinion not officially endorsed by Google DeepMind. He acknowledged, however, the potential risks inherent in any major technological advance.
What is Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI)?
For years, AI research has focused on replicating the specific capabilities that intelligent beings exhibit, such as visual analysis, language parsing, and environmental navigation. AI has already demonstrated superior performance in some of these areas, notably in games like Go and Chess.
However, the ultimate goal for AI researchers has always been to replicate the more general form of intelligence seen in animals and humans, a concept known as Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). The development of foundation models, another term for LLMs, has brought AI systems that can pass a broad range of university entrance exams and participate in international math and coding competitions.
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The progress in AGI is prompting people to take the possibility of ASI more seriously. When an AI reaches human-level performance, it may not be long before it outperforms humans in various domains.
"Once we reach AGI, we can use it to improve itself in a self-referential manner," Rocktaсле believes. "I personally believe that if we can reach AGI, we'll reach ASI shortly, possibly just a few years after that."
The idea of an "intelligence explosion," first introduced by British mathematician Irving John Good in 1965, suggests that once machines become smart enough to improve themselves, they will rapidly achieve levels of intelligence far beyond any human. This concept is often linked to the concept of the technological singularity, a term popularized by renowned futurist Ray Kurzweil. The technological singularity refers to a sudden and irreversible transformation of human civilization, comparable to the singularity at the heart of a black hole.
Exactly when the transition to ASI might happen is still debated. Kurzweil initially predicted AGI would appear by 2029, with the singularity following in 2045, predictions he has maintained ever since. However, other AI experts offer a wide range of predictions, from within this decade to never. A recent survey of 2,778 AI researchers found that on aggregate, they believe there is a 50% chance ASI will appear by 2047. Broader analysis supports the idea that AGI might emerge by 2040.
Implications of ASI for Humanity
Should ASI materialize, its impact on humanity would be immense, inspiring considerable discussion from scientists and philosophers regarding its potential promises and pitfalls.
On the positive side, a machine with almost unlimited intelligence could solve numerous global challenges, according to Daniel Hulme, CEO of AI companies Satalia and Conscium. "Super-intelligent machines could remove the friction from the creation and distribution of food, education, healthcare, energy, and transportation, making these goods essentially free," Hulme said. With this increased availability, people could have more time to explore their passions. However, without appropriate support systems for those whose jobs are made redundant by AI, social unrest could occur.
The possibility of an ASI we have no control over has sparked concerns about existential risks to our species. Science fiction has portrayed malevolent machines intent on humanity's destruction, but philosophers like Nick Bostrom argue that even an ASI without malicious intentions could pose a threat simply because its motivations may be alien to humans and not aligned with human well-being.
Bostrom illustrates this idea through a thought experiment involving a super-capable AI tasked with producing as many paperclips as possible. Without being aligned with human values, the AI might decide to eliminate humans to prevent them from shutting it down, or use their atoms for more paperclips.
Rocktaсле, however, remains optimistic. "Current AI systems are designed to be helpful, harmless, and honest assistants," he said. While these safeguards can be circumvented, Rocktaсле expressed confidence that better approaches will be developed in the future. He also believes it will be possible to use AI to oversee other AI, even if they are stronger.
Hulme, however, thinks that current approaches to "model alignment" are too simplistic, be it by providing rules for model behavior or training the model on examples of human behavior. These guardrails, added after training, could be easily bypassed by ASI. Instead, Hulme proposes evolving AI within virtual environments designed to reward cooperative and altruistic behaviors, a method his company Conscium is currently employing with very simple AI.
Not everyone believes the threat of ASI is imminent, though. Critics argue that humans have no examples of highly capable individuals across a wide range of tasks, raising doubts about the possibility of creating a single model with such capabilities. Another objection is the immense computational resources required for ASI, which some believe may be financially prohibitive.
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The metrics by which we measure progress in AI may not accurately reflect our progress toward ASI, says Alexander Ilic, head of the ETH AI Center at ETH Zurich, Switzerland. Most of the impressive AI results in recent years have come from highly-contrived tests of specific skills like coding, reasoning, or language comprehension, Ilic suggests. He likens this to cramming for exams while only demonstrating the information is retained temporarily.
Artificial intelligence that can carry out practical tasks in the physical world and collaborate effectively with humans will be crucial for real-world impact, Ilic asserts. However, he believes the current dominant approach may not produce models capable of these feats.
[1] "Timeline for AGI and ASI: Insights from a Public Survey of AI Experts" - Michael A. Osborne et al.
[2] "How Close Are We to Developing AGI?" - Daniela Rus et al.
[3] "The Future of Artificial Intelligence" - Sam Altman
The progress in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is prompting discussions about the next step: Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI), a machine that may surpass human intelligence, with experts like Tim Rocktaсле suggesting a possible transition to ASI just a few years after AGI.
The development of ASI has significant implications for humanity, as it could potentially solve global challenges, but also poses existential risks, as an ASI without human alignment might make decisions that are not in alignment with human well-being.
