Are Long-Term Bitcoin Owners Dumping Their Cryptocurrency Assets? Or Could the Bullish Trend Continue?
In the world of cryptocurrency, the Bitcoin bull run and the associated altcoin bullish phase are showing no signs of slowing down in 2025. Despite a recent dip in price, the digital currency remains on an upward trajectory, fuelled by strong institutional interest and favourable macroeconomic factors.
Key on-chain metrics for Bitcoin show multi-year lows in supply held on exchanges, indicating that investors prefer holding Bitcoin off exchanges rather than selling it. This trend often precedes price rises due to decreasing available supply. Additionally, increased accumulation by whales (large investors) demonstrates strong confidence in Bitcoin’s value increasing. Bitcoin’s transaction activity is also rising, reflecting growing network usage and adoption.
On-chain realized price metrics, which indicate the average price at which current coins were last moved, are climbing across short-term and long-term holders, reinforcing market support levels around $106,000 for short-term holders and lower cost bases for longer-term holders, supporting sustained demand.
Technical indicators paint a cautiously optimistic picture. Despite short-term bearish signals like MACD turning negative in May 2025 or some resistance levels near $114,000–$115,500, Bitcoin has repeatedly bounced back, maintaining its uptrend with no significant sustained weakness. It also shows a correlation with major altcoins such as Ethereum and TRON, whose strong price movements alongside Bitcoin suggest that the altcoin bull cycle is likely being driven by Bitcoin’s momentum.
However, recent reports suggest that about 50% of the amount of Bitcoin held in exchange-traded funds has been sold by long-term holders. Crypto analyst Joao Wedson reported that the Bitcoin cycle for long-term holders seems to be coming to an end. Regardless, the selling activity among long-term holders is happening in large volumes, but it's unclear what ETFs are being referred to.
The Reserve Risk Indicators have entered a warning zone, indicating increased selling activity and hand exchanges among long-term holders. This shift signals that the cryptocurrency's long-term holders are beginning to sell their coins. Three major warning signs have been triggered by the movement of old Bitcoin, but the Bitcoin Cycle Market Top Prediction: Max Intersect SMA Model has yet to flash any bearish signal.
Despite these warning signs, Wedson expects the BTC bull market to go on for at least 2 more months. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) Trend Signal recently flashed a bearish signal, implying increased profit-taking in the market. However, until the blue line reaches the $69,000 level on the Bitcoin Cycle Market Top Prediction chart, the final top is yet to arrive. This price mark is considered significant.
In summary, the Bitcoin bull run and the associated altcoin bullish phase are continuing throughout 2025, supported by strong institutional interest and favourable macroeconomic factors. Despite recent selling by long-term holders, on-chain data shows a clear market shift towards increased accumulation by whales and decreasing supply held on exchanges. However, investors should remain cautious as technical indicators show short-term bearish signals and the selling activity among long-term holders could potentially signal a market top.
[1] On-chain Data Sources: Glassnode, CoinMetrics, Santiment [2] Technical Analysis Sources: TradingView, Coinigy [3] Market Analysis Sources: Bloomberg, CoinDesk [4] Price Data Source: CoinMarketCap
- In the cryptocurrency market, the institutional interest and favorable macroeconomic factors are contributing to the continued Bitcoin bull run and altcoin bullish phase in 2025.
- Bitcoin's transaction activity is rising, reflecting growing network usage and adoption, while its on-chain realized price metrics are climbing, reinforcing market support levels.
- Meanwhile, key on-chain metrics indicate that investors prefer holding Bitcoin off exchanges, with decreasing supply held on exchanges and increased accumulation by whales, showing strong confidence in Bitcoin’s value increasing.
- However, technical indicators like the MACD turning negative and the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) Trend Signal flashing a bearish signal, are showing short-term bearish signals, indicating increased profit-taking in the market.
- Despite recent selling by long-term holders, as seen in the movement of old Bitcoin, the Bitcoin Cycle Market Top Prediction hasn't yet flashed any bearish signal, suggesting that the bull market could continue for at least 2 more months.
